Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: This article discusses facts and issues related to the selection of a stock’s price distribution.

Description: “Many commentators have suggested that firms need to do stress tests to examine their vulnerability to adverse situations that are not within the data set used to parameterize their risk models. We suggest the adop¬tion of a terminology to describe stress tests and also a meth¬odology that can be adopted by any risk model user to test and communicate a test of the stability of model results.”